Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."