🔗 Share this article

Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking upset.

Yet the current competition is profoundly unique. The pool of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions falling away and recent strugglers ascending collectively. In an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and fun season, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right system, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his special ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical year!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still